SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 12 05

ampr.bbs.solarZur Gruppenliste
Betreff: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 12 05
Von: lw3dbh@lw3dbh
Gruppen: ampr.bbs.solar
Datum: 13. May 2020, 02:10:00
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To  : SOLAR@WW

             _ __        _______ ____  ____  _   _
            | |\ \      / /___ /|  _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
            | | \ \ /\ / /  |_ \| | | |  _ \| |_| | MORENO
            | |__\ V  V /  ___) | |_| | |_) |  _  | ARGENTINA
            |_____\_/\_/  |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|

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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 326 km/s at 11/2341Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15
May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 069
Predicted   13 May-15 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

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In this world, nothing is certain but death and taxes.
-- Benjamin Franklin

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Datum Thema#  Autor
13.05. o SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 12 051lw3dbh

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